Assisense 4–4 Riopretano: Result & Stats

Assisense

FT

4 – 4

HT: 3 – 2

Riopretano

Da Ora 90+1', 45+3'

Samuka Santos 45+2'

Dezin 40'

L. Lopes 77' (pen), 52'

Edu 43'

G. Nery 3'

6/20/2026

Paulista Série B · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Assisense53%

×Draw21%

Riopretano26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AssisenseExpected goals in this matchRiopretano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.48

Assisense

2.16

Riopretano

1.48

Assisense creates 46% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

1.92

creates per match

1.20

1.77

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Assisense

1.92

Riopretano

1.20

allows per match

Assisense

1.77

Riopretano

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Assisense+0.00on par

Riopretano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assisense ↓

Riopretano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Assisense or draw

74%

Assisense or Riopretano

79%

Draw or Riopretano

47%

Winning margin

Assisense wins by 2+

32%

Riopretano wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Assisense 1+ goals

88%

Assisense 2+ goals

63%

Assisense 3+ goals

36%

Riopretano 1+ goals

77%

Riopretano 2+ goals

43%

Riopretano 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Assisense (draw refunded)

67%

Riopretano (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assisense at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Riopretano away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assisense attack 1.92 + Riopretano defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.16

Riopretano attack 1.20 + Assisense defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Assisense scores more

53%

level

21%

Riopretano scores more

26%

Assisense at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Assisense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

G. Nery

40'

43'

45+2'

45+3'

52'

L. Lopes

77'

L. LopesPenalty

90+1'

Da Ora

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff