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Assisense vs Mauaense — Paulista Série B 2026

Assisense
Assisense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mauaense
Mauaense
Unknown 54', 44'
Unknown 77', 72'
7/25/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Assisense45%
×Draw24%
Mauaense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assisense
1.66
Mauaense
1.36

Assisense creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Assisense
1.92
Mauaense
0.95

allows per match

Assisense
1.77
Mauaense
1.40

finishing

Assisense+0.00on par
Mauaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assisense ↓

Mauaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Assisense or draw
68%
Assisense or Mauaense
76%
Draw or Mauaense
55%

Winning margin

Assisense wins by 2+
23%
Mauaense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Assisense 1+ goals
81%
Assisense 2+ goals
49%
Assisense 3+ goals
23%
Mauaense 1+ goals
74%
Mauaense 2+ goals
39%
Mauaense 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Assisense (draw refunded)
59%
Mauaense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assisense at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Mauaense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assisense attack 1.92 + Mauaense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.66

Mauaense attack 0.95 + Assisense defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Assisense scores more
45%
level
24%
Mauaense scores more
32%

Assisense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Assisense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
54'
72'
77'
87'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Assisense 2–2 Mauaense

Assisense and Mauaense drew 2-2 in Paulista Série B on July 25, 2025.

Goals: ? (44', 54', 72', 77').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva in Assis, São Paulo.