Arda Kardzhali 2–1 Botev Galabovo: Result & Stats

Arda Kardzhali

FT

2 – 1

Botev Galabovo

11/24/2018

Second League · Round 15Arena Arda (Kardzhali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arda Kardzhali64%

×Draw24%

Botev Galabovo12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arda KardzhaliExpected goals in this matchBotev Galabovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.53

Arda Kardzhali

1.60

Botev Galabovo

0.53

Arda Kardzhali creates 202% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 26 away

1.67

creates per match

0.73

0.33

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.67

Botev Galabovo

0.73

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali

0.33

Botev Galabovo

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Botev Galabovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Botev Galabovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw

88%

Arda Kardzhali or Botev Galabovo

76%

Draw or Botev Galabovo

36%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

35%

Botev Galabovo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

80%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

47%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

22%

Botev Galabovo 1+ goals

41%

Botev Galabovo 2+ goals

10%

Botev Galabovo 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

84%

Botev Galabovo (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Botev Galabovo away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.67 + Botev Galabovo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.60

Botev Galabovo attack 0.73 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more

64%

level

24%

Botev Galabovo scores more

12%

Arda Kardzhali at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff