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Åssiden IF vs Skeid II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Skeid II
Skeid II
J. Gylland 44', 3'
D. Lunde 90+2', 49'
4/15/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 2Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åssiden IF50%
×Draw18%
Skeid II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åssiden IF
2.79
Skeid II
2.20

Åssiden IF creates 27% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Åssiden IF
1.96
Skeid II
1.85

allows per match

Åssiden IF
2.54
Skeid II
3.62

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par
Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Skeid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–35%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw
69%
Åssiden IF or Skeid II
82%
Draw or Skeid II
50%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+
32%
Skeid II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals
94%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
76%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
52%
Skeid II 1+ goals
89%
Skeid II 2+ goals
64%
Skeid II 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
62%
Skeid II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Skeid II away — creates 1.85, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 1.96 + Skeid II defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.79

Skeid II attack 1.85 + Åssiden IF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Åssiden IF scores more
50%
level
18%
Skeid II scores more
31%

Åssiden IF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Åssiden IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
J. Gylland
44'
J. Gylland
49'
D. Lunde
90+2'
D. Lunde

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Åssiden IF vs Skeid II

Åssiden IF and Skeid II drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on April 15, 2024.

Goals: J. Gylland (3', 44'), D. Lunde (49', 90+2').

The match was played at Åssiden Stadion in Drammen.