Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Åssiden IF vs Ørn Horten — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
CANC
12:00
Ørn Horten
Ørn Horten
9/5/20203. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 5Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Åssiden IF3%
×Draw6%
Ørn Horten91%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åssiden IF
0.71
Ørn Horten
4.21

Ørn Horten creates 493% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Åssiden IF
0.86
Ørn Horten
3.29

allows per match

Åssiden IF
5.14
Ørn Horten
0.57

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par
Ørn Horten+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Ørn Horten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–310%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (11%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw
9%
Åssiden IF or Ørn Horten
94%
Draw or Ørn Horten
97%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+
1%
Ørn Horten wins by 2+
79%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals
51%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
16%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
4%
Ørn Horten 1+ goals
98%
Ørn Horten 2+ goals
91%
Ørn Horten 3+ goals
76%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
3%
Ørn Horten (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 0.86, concedes 5.14 · 7 matches

Ørn Horten away — creates 3.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 0.86 + Ørn Horten defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.71

Ørn Horten attack 3.29 + Åssiden IF defence 5.14 → ÷2 → 4.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Åssiden IF scores more
3%
level
6%
Ørn Horten scores more
91%

Ørn Horten at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Ørn Horten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Åssiden IF host Ørn Horten

September 5, 2020: Åssiden IF take on Ørn Horten in 3. Division - Girone 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Åssiden IF host Ørn Horten at Åssiden Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.