Åssiden IF 0–8 Pors Grenland: Result & Stats

Åssiden IF

FT

0 – 8

Pors Grenland

8/7/2021

3. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 1Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Åssiden IF6%

×Draw10%

Pors Grenland84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Åssiden IFExpected goals in this matchPors Grenland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

3.64

Åssiden IF

0.96

Pors Grenland

3.64

Pors Grenland creates 279% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

0.86

creates per match

2.15

5.14

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Åssiden IF

0.86

Pors Grenland

2.15

allows per match

Åssiden IF

5.14

Pors Grenland

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Pors Grenland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Pors Grenland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–39%

0–48%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–34%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw

16%

Åssiden IF or Pors Grenland

90%

Draw or Pors Grenland

94%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+

2%

Pors Grenland wins by 2+

68%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals

62%

Åssiden IF 2+ goals

25%

Åssiden IF 3+ goals

7%

Pors Grenland 1+ goals

97%

Pors Grenland 2+ goals

87%

Pors Grenland 3+ goals

68%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)

7%

Pors Grenland (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 0.86, concedes 5.14 · 7 matches

Pors Grenland away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 0.86 + Pors Grenland defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Pors Grenland attack 2.15 + Åssiden IF defence 5.14 → ÷2 → 3.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Åssiden IF scores more

6%

level

10%

Pors Grenland scores more

84%

Pors Grenland at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff