Åssiden IF 0–6 Mjøndalen II: Result & Stats

Åssiden IF

FT

0 – 6

Mjøndalen II

10/23/2021

3. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 12Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Åssiden IF8%

×Draw11%

Mjøndalen II81%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Åssiden IFExpected goals in this matchMjøndalen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

3.82

Åssiden IF

1.26

Mjøndalen II

3.82

Mjøndalen II creates 203% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

0.86

creates per match

2.50

5.14

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Åssiden IF

0.86

Mjøndalen II

2.50

allows per match

Åssiden IF

5.14

Mjøndalen II

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Mjøndalen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–36%

0–46%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw

19%

Åssiden IF or Mjøndalen II

89%

Draw or Mjøndalen II

92%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+

3%

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+

64%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals

72%

Åssiden IF 2+ goals

36%

Åssiden IF 3+ goals

13%

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals

98%

Mjøndalen II 2+ goals

88%

Mjøndalen II 3+ goals

71%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)

10%

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 0.86, concedes 5.14 · 7 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 0.86 + Mjøndalen II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Mjøndalen II attack 2.50 + Åssiden IF defence 5.14 → ÷2 → 3.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Åssiden IF scores more

8%

level

11%

Mjøndalen II scores more

81%

Mjøndalen II at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Mjøndalen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff