Åssiden IF 1–2 Lillehammer: Result & Stats

Åssiden IF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Lillehammer

6/28/2025

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 12Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åssiden IF33%

×Draw22%

Lillehammer45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Åssiden IFExpected goals in this matchLillehammer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.96

Åssiden IF

1.64

Lillehammer

1.96

Lillehammer creates 20% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.96

creates per match

1.38

2.54

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Åssiden IF

1.96

Lillehammer

1.38

allows per match

Åssiden IF

2.54

Lillehammer

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Lillehammer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Lillehammer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw

55%

Åssiden IF or Lillehammer

78%

Draw or Lillehammer

67%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+

16%

Lillehammer wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals

81%

Åssiden IF 2+ goals

49%

Åssiden IF 3+ goals

23%

Lillehammer 1+ goals

86%

Lillehammer 2+ goals

58%

Lillehammer 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)

42%

Lillehammer (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Lillehammer away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 1.96 + Lillehammer defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lillehammer attack 1.38 + Åssiden IF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Åssiden IF scores more

33%

level

22%

Lillehammer scores more

45%

Lillehammer at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lillehammer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff