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Åssiden IF vs Kråkerøy — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
CANC
14:00
Kråkerøy
Kråkerøy
8/22/20203. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 3Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Åssiden IF13%
×Draw14%
Kråkerøy73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åssiden IF
1.51
Kråkerøy
3.48

Kråkerøy creates 130% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Åssiden IF
0.86
Kråkerøy
1.83

allows per match

Åssiden IF
5.14
Kråkerøy
2.17

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par
Kråkerøy+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Kråkerøy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw
27%
Åssiden IF or Kråkerøy
86%
Draw or Kråkerøy
87%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+
5%
Kråkerøy wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals
78%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
44%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
19%
Kråkerøy 1+ goals
97%
Kråkerøy 2+ goals
85%
Kråkerøy 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
16%
Kråkerøy (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 0.86, concedes 5.14 · 7 matches

Kråkerøy away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 0.86 + Kråkerøy defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.51

Kråkerøy attack 1.83 + Åssiden IF defence 5.14 → ÷2 → 3.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Åssiden IF scores more
13%
level
14%
Kråkerøy scores more
73%

Kråkerøy at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kråkerøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Åssiden IF vs Kråkerøy — Match Preview

Åssiden IF face Kråkerøy on August 22, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Åssiden IF host Kråkerøy at Åssiden Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.