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Åssiden IF vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
HamKam II
HamKam II
7/14/20253. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 14Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åssiden IF45%
×Draw20%
HamKam II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åssiden IF
2.33
HamKam II
2.04

Åssiden IF creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Åssiden IF
1.96
HamKam II
1.54

allows per match

Åssiden IF
2.54
HamKam II
2.69

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw
65%
Åssiden IF or HamKam II
80%
Draw or HamKam II
55%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+
27%
HamKam II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals
90%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
67%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
41%
HamKam II 1+ goals
87%
HamKam II 2+ goals
60%
HamKam II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
56%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 1.96 + HamKam II defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.33

HamKam II attack 1.54 + Åssiden IF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Åssiden IF scores more
45%
level
20%
HamKam II scores more
35%

Åssiden IF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Åssiden IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Åssiden IF 0–5 HamKam II

HamKam II beat Åssiden IF 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on July 14, 2025.

The match was played at Åssiden Stadion in Drammen.