Åssiden IF 3–2 Gamle Oslo: Result & Stats

Åssiden IF

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Gamle Oslo

9/13/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 21Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åssiden IF28%

×Draw19%

Gamle Oslo54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Åssiden IFExpected goals in this matchGamle Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

2.70

Åssiden IF

1.94

Gamle Oslo

2.70

Gamle Oslo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.96

creates per match

2.85

2.54

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Åssiden IF

1.96

Gamle Oslo

2.85

allows per match

Åssiden IF

2.54

Gamle Oslo

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Gamle Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Gamle Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw

46%

Åssiden IF or Gamle Oslo

81%

Draw or Gamle Oslo

72%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+

14%

Gamle Oslo wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals

86%

Åssiden IF 2+ goals

58%

Åssiden IF 3+ goals

30%

Gamle Oslo 1+ goals

93%

Gamle Oslo 2+ goals

75%

Gamle Oslo 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)

34%

Gamle Oslo (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Gamle Oslo away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 1.96 + Gamle Oslo defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.94

Gamle Oslo attack 2.85 + Åssiden IF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Åssiden IF scores more

28%

level

19%

Gamle Oslo scores more

54%

Gamle Oslo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gamle Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff