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Åssiden IF vs Bjørkelangen — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bjørkelangen
Bjørkelangen
3/29/20253. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 1Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åssiden IF44%
×Draw21%
Bjørkelangen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åssiden IF
2.02
Bjørkelangen
1.77

Åssiden IF creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Åssiden IF
1.96
Bjørkelangen
1.00

allows per match

Åssiden IF
2.54
Bjørkelangen
2.08

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par
Bjørkelangen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Bjørkelangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw
66%
Åssiden IF or Bjørkelangen
79%
Draw or Bjørkelangen
56%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+
25%
Bjørkelangen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals
87%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
60%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
33%
Bjørkelangen 1+ goals
83%
Bjørkelangen 2+ goals
53%
Bjørkelangen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
56%
Bjørkelangen (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Bjørkelangen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 1.96 + Bjørkelangen defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.02

Bjørkelangen attack 1.00 + Åssiden IF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Åssiden IF scores more
44%
level
21%
Bjørkelangen scores more
34%

Åssiden IF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Åssiden IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Åssiden IF 2–2 Bjørkelangen

Åssiden IF and Bjørkelangen drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Åssiden Stadion in Drammen.