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Assad vs Zoo Kericho — Super League 2018

Assad
Assad
FT
3 – 2
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
2/10/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Assad42%
×Draw24%
Zoo Kericho34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assad
1.57
Zoo Kericho
1.38

Assad creates 14% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 14 away

creates per match

Assad
1.50
Zoo Kericho
1.64

allows per match

Assad
1.11
Zoo Kericho
1.64

finishing

Assad+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assad ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Assad or draw
66%
Assad or Zoo Kericho
76%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
58%

Winning margin

Assad wins by 2+
21%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Assad 1+ goals
79%
Assad 2+ goals
46%
Assad 3+ goals
21%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
75%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
40%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Assad (draw refunded)
56%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assad attack 1.50 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Assad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Assad scores more
42%
level
24%
Zoo Kericho scores more
34%

Assad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Assad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Assad 3–2 Zoo Kericho

Assad beat Zoo Kericho 3-2 in Super League on February 10, 2022.

The match was played at Mbaraki Sports Club in Mombasa.