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Assad vs Migori Youth — Super League 2018

Assad
Assad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Migori Youth
Migori Youth
3/17/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Ukunda Showground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Assad45%
×Draw27%
Migori Youth28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assad
1.38
Migori Youth
1.01

Assad creates 37% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 91 away

creates per match

Assad
1.50
Migori Youth
0.91

allows per match

Assad
1.11
Migori Youth
1.25

finishing

Assad+0.00on par
Migori Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assad ↓

Migori Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Assad or draw
72%
Assad or Migori Youth
73%
Draw or Migori Youth
55%

Winning margin

Assad wins by 2+
22%
Migori Youth wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Assad 1+ goals
75%
Assad 2+ goals
40%
Assad 3+ goals
16%
Migori Youth 1+ goals
64%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
27%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Assad (draw refunded)
62%
Migori Youth (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Migori Youth away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assad attack 1.50 + Migori Youth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Migori Youth attack 0.91 + Assad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Assad scores more
45%
level
27%
Migori Youth scores more
28%

Assad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Assad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Assad vs Migori Youth

Assad and Migori Youth drew 0-0 in Super League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Ukunda Showground in Ukunda.