Assad 0–0 Mara Sugar: Result & Stats | Super League

Assad

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mara Sugar

2/10/2024

Super League · Round 19Ukunda Showground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Assad39%

×Draw27%

Mara Sugar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AssadExpected goals in this matchMara Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.21

Assad

1.32

Mara Sugar

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 52 away

1.50

creates per match

1.31

1.11

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Assad

1.50

Mara Sugar

1.31

allows per match

Assad

1.11

Mara Sugar

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Assad+0.00on par

Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assad ↓

Mara Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Assad or draw

66%

Assad or Mara Sugar

73%

Draw or Mara Sugar

61%

Winning margin

Assad wins by 2+

18%

Mara Sugar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Assad 1+ goals

73%

Assad 2+ goals

38%

Assad 3+ goals

15%

Mara Sugar 1+ goals

70%

Mara Sugar 2+ goals

34%

Mara Sugar 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Assad (draw refunded)

54%

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assad attack 1.50 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Assad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Assad scores more

39%

level

27%

Mara Sugar scores more

34%

Assad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Assad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff