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Assad vs Kajiado — Super League 2018

Assad
Assad
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Kajiado
Kajiado
1/30/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Shamu Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Assad60%
×Draw21%
Kajiado19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assad
2.00
Kajiado
1.02

Assad creates 96% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 35 away

creates per match

Assad
1.50
Kajiado
0.94

allows per match

Assad
1.11
Kajiado
2.51

finishing

Assad+0.00on par
Kajiado+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assad ↓

Kajiado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Assad or draw
81%
Assad or Kajiado
79%
Draw or Kajiado
40%

Winning margin

Assad wins by 2+
36%
Kajiado wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Assad 1+ goals
86%
Assad 2+ goals
59%
Assad 3+ goals
32%
Kajiado 1+ goals
64%
Kajiado 2+ goals
27%
Kajiado 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Assad (draw refunded)
76%
Kajiado (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Kajiado away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assad attack 1.50 + Kajiado defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kajiado attack 0.94 + Assad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Assad scores more
60%
level
21%
Kajiado scores more
19%

Assad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Assad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Assad 3–2 Kajiado

Assad beat Kajiado 3-2 in Super League on January 30, 2023.

The match was played at Shamu Ground in Ukunda.