Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Assad vs Gusii — Super League 2018

Assad
Assad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gusii
Gusii
2/8/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Shamu Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Assad53%
×Draw25%
Gusii22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assad
1.59
Gusii
0.92

Assad creates 73% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 54 away

creates per match

Assad
1.50
Gusii
0.72

allows per match

Assad
1.11
Gusii
1.69

finishing

Assad+0.00on par
Gusii+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assad ↓

Gusii →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Assad or draw
78%
Assad or Gusii
75%
Draw or Gusii
47%

Winning margin

Assad wins by 2+
28%
Gusii wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Assad 1+ goals
80%
Assad 2+ goals
47%
Assad 3+ goals
21%
Gusii 1+ goals
60%
Gusii 2+ goals
23%
Gusii 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Assad (draw refunded)
71%
Gusii (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Gusii away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assad attack 1.50 + Gusii defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gusii attack 0.72 + Assad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Assad scores more
53%
level
25%
Gusii scores more
22%

Assad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Assad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Assad 0–0 Gusii

Assad and Gusii drew 0-0 in Super League on February 8, 2023.

The match was played at Shamu Ground in Ukunda.