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Assad vs Dandora Love — Super League 2018

Assad
Assad
FT
5 – 2
Dandora Love
Dandora Love
3/12/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Shamu Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Assad59%
×Draw22%
Dandora Love20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assad
1.99
Dandora Love
1.06

Assad creates 88% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 15 away

creates per match

Assad
1.50
Dandora Love
1.00

allows per match

Assad
1.11
Dandora Love
2.47

finishing

Assad+0.00on par
Dandora Love+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assad ↓

Dandora Love →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Assad or draw
80%
Assad or Dandora Love
78%
Draw or Dandora Love
41%

Winning margin

Assad wins by 2+
35%
Dandora Love wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Assad 1+ goals
86%
Assad 2+ goals
59%
Assad 3+ goals
32%
Dandora Love 1+ goals
65%
Dandora Love 2+ goals
29%
Dandora Love 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Assad (draw refunded)
75%
Dandora Love (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Dandora Love away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assad attack 1.50 + Dandora Love defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.99

Dandora Love attack 1.00 + Assad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Assad scores more
59%
level
22%
Dandora Love scores more
20%

Assad at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Assad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Assad vs Dandora Love

Assad beat Dandora Love 5-2 in Super League on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Shamu Ground in Kwale.