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Assabah SC vs Abu Salim — Premier League 2019

Assabah SC
Assabah SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Abu Salim
Abu Salim
3/15/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Assabah SC31%
×Draw35%
Abu Salim35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assabah SC
0.79
Abu Salim
0.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 61 away

creates per match

Assabah SC
0.50
Abu Salim
0.82

allows per match

Assabah SC
0.90
Abu Salim
1.07

finishing

Assabah SC+0.00on par
Abu Salim+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assabah SC ↓

Abu Salim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Assabah SC or draw
65%
Assabah SC or Abu Salim
65%
Draw or Abu Salim
69%

Winning margin

Assabah SC wins by 2+
10%
Abu Salim wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Assabah SC 1+ goals
55%
Assabah SC 2+ goals
19%
Assabah SC 3+ goals
5%
Abu Salim 1+ goals
58%
Abu Salim 2+ goals
21%
Abu Salim 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Assabah SC (draw refunded)
47%
Abu Salim (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assabah SC at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Abu Salim away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assabah SC attack 0.50 + Abu Salim defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.79

Abu Salim attack 0.82 + Assabah SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Assabah SC scores more
31%
level
35%
Abu Salim scores more
35%

Abu Salim at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Abu Salim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Assabah SC 1–0 Abu Salim

Assabah SC beat Abu Salim 1-0 in Premier League on March 15, 2026.