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ASPAC vs Dragons — Championnat National 2019

ASPAC
ASPAC
FT
1 – 0
Dragons
Dragons
5/18/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 17Stade de Toffo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

ASPAC44%
×Draw31%
Dragons25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASPAC
1.15
Dragons
0.79

ASPAC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 115 away

creates per match

ASPAC
1.28
Dragons
0.83

allows per match

ASPAC
0.75
Dragons
1.01

finishing

ASPAC+0.00on par
Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASPAC ↓

Dragons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ASPAC or draw
75%
ASPAC or Dragons
69%
Draw or Dragons
56%

Winning margin

ASPAC wins by 2+
19%
Dragons wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ASPAC 1+ goals
68%
ASPAC 2+ goals
32%
ASPAC 3+ goals
11%
Dragons 1+ goals
55%
Dragons 2+ goals
19%
Dragons 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ASPAC (draw refunded)
64%
Dragons (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASPAC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

Dragons away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.01 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASPAC attack 1.28 + Dragons defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.15

Dragons attack 0.83 + ASPAC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ASPAC scores more
44%
level
31%
Dragons scores more
25%

ASPAC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ASPAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: ASPAC 1–0 Dragons

ASPAC beat Dragons 1-0 in Championnat National on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Toffo in Toffo.