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ASPAC vs Béké Bembèrèkè — Championnat National 2019

ASPAC
ASPAC
FT
1 – 0
Béké Bembèrèkè
Béké Bembèrèkè
4/17/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 23Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa (Cotonou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

ASPAC45%
×Draw30%
Béké Bembèrèkè25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASPAC
1.21
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.82

ASPAC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 100 away

creates per match

ASPAC
1.27
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.90

allows per match

ASPAC
0.74
Béké Bembèrèkè
1.15

finishing

ASPAC+0.00on par
Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASPAC ↓

Béké Bembèrèkè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ASPAC or draw
75%
ASPAC or Béké Bembèrèkè
70%
Draw or Béké Bembèrèkè
55%

Winning margin

ASPAC wins by 2+
20%
Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ASPAC 1+ goals
70%
ASPAC 2+ goals
34%
ASPAC 3+ goals
12%
Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals
56%
Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals
20%
Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ASPAC (draw refunded)
64%
Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASPAC at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.74 · 124 matches

Béké Bembèrèkè away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.15 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASPAC attack 1.27 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 0.90 + ASPAC defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ASPAC scores more
45%
level
30%
Béké Bembèrèkè scores more
25%

ASPAC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ASPAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASPAC vs Béké Bembèrèkè

ASPAC beat Béké Bembèrèkè 1-0 in Championnat National on April 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa (Cotonou).