ASPAC 4–0 AS Sobemap: Result & Stats

ASPAC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

AS Sobemap

4/18/2026

Championnat National · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

ASPAC42%

×Draw31%

AS Sobemap27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASPACExpected goals in this matchAS Sobemap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.84

ASPAC

1.13

AS Sobemap

0.84

ASPAC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 106 away

1.28

creates per match

0.94

0.75

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

ASPAC

1.28

AS Sobemap

0.94

allows per match

ASPAC

0.75

AS Sobemap

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASPAC+0.00on par

AS Sobemap+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASPAC ↓

AS Sobemap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

ASPAC or draw

73%

ASPAC or AS Sobemap

69%

Draw or AS Sobemap

58%

Winning margin

ASPAC wins by 2+

18%

AS Sobemap wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ASPAC 1+ goals

68%

ASPAC 2+ goals

31%

ASPAC 3+ goals

11%

AS Sobemap 1+ goals

57%

AS Sobemap 2+ goals

21%

AS Sobemap 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

ASPAC (draw refunded)

61%

AS Sobemap (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASPAC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

AS Sobemap away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.97 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASPAC attack 1.28 + AS Sobemap defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

AS Sobemap attack 0.94 + ASPAC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ASPAC scores more

42%

level

31%

AS Sobemap scores more

27%

ASPAC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ASPAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff