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ASPAC vs Aïnonvi — Championnat National 2019

ASPAC
ASPAC
FT
1 – 1
Aïnonvi
Aïnonvi
11/1/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 3Stade de Toffo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

ASPAC54%
×Draw29%
Aïnonvi17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASPAC
1.31
Aïnonvi
0.59

ASPAC creates 122% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 12 away

creates per match

ASPAC
1.30
Aïnonvi
0.42

allows per match

ASPAC
0.76
Aïnonvi
1.33

finishing

ASPAC+0.00on par
Aïnonvi+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASPAC ↓

Aïnonvi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

ASPAC or draw
83%
ASPAC or Aïnonvi
71%
Draw or Aïnonvi
46%

Winning margin

ASPAC wins by 2+
26%
Aïnonvi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ASPAC 1+ goals
73%
ASPAC 2+ goals
38%
ASPAC 3+ goals
14%
Aïnonvi 1+ goals
45%
Aïnonvi 2+ goals
12%
Aïnonvi 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ASPAC (draw refunded)
76%
Aïnonvi (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASPAC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.76 · 117 matches

Aïnonvi away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASPAC attack 1.30 + Aïnonvi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Aïnonvi attack 0.42 + ASPAC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ASPAC scores more
54%
level
29%
Aïnonvi scores more
17%

ASPAC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ASPAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: ASPAC 1–1 Aïnonvi

ASPAC and Aïnonvi drew 1-1 in Championnat National on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Toffo in Toffo.