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ASOS vs Police — Championnat National 2019

ASOS
ASOS
FT
2 – 0
Police
Police
5/29/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 15Stade Municipal de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

ASOS39%
×Draw29%
Police32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASOS
1.18
Police
1.03

ASOS creates 15% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 75 away

creates per match

ASOS
0.75
Police
0.88

allows per match

ASOS
1.18
Police
1.61

finishing

ASOS+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASOS ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ASOS or draw
68%
ASOS or Police
71%
Draw or Police
61%

Winning margin

ASOS wins by 2+
17%
Police wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ASOS 1+ goals
69%
ASOS 2+ goals
33%
ASOS 3+ goals
12%
Police 1+ goals
64%
Police 2+ goals
28%
Police 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ASOS (draw refunded)
55%
Police (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASOS at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASOS attack 0.75 + Police defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.18

Police attack 0.88 + ASOS defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ASOS scores more
39%
level
29%
Police scores more
32%

ASOS at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ASOS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: ASOS 2–0 Police

ASOS beat Police 2-0 in Championnat National on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Missérété in Akpo-Missérété.