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ASOS vs JSP — Championnat National 2019

ASOS
ASOS
FT
1 – 3
JSP
JSP
1/22/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 16Centre d’excellence de football de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

ASOS37%
×Draw30%
JSP33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASOS
1.08
JSP
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 107 away

creates per match

ASOS
0.79
JSP
0.80

allows per match

ASOS
1.18
JSP
1.37

finishing

ASOS+0.00on par
JSP+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASOS ↓

JSP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ASOS or draw
67%
ASOS or JSP
70%
Draw or JSP
63%

Winning margin

ASOS wins by 2+
15%
JSP wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ASOS 1+ goals
66%
ASOS 2+ goals
29%
ASOS 3+ goals
10%
JSP 1+ goals
63%
JSP 2+ goals
26%
JSP 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ASOS (draw refunded)
53%
JSP (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASOS at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

JSP away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASOS attack 0.79 + JSP defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.08

JSP attack 0.80 + ASOS defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

ASOS scores more
37%
level
30%
JSP scores more
33%

ASOS at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "ASOS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASOS vs JSP

JSP beat ASOS 3-1 in Championnat National on January 22, 2022.

The match was played at Centre d’excellence de football de Missérété in Akpro-Missérété.