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ASOS vs Dynamo Unacob — Championnat National 2019

ASOS
ASOS
FT
0 – 0
Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
4/28/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 4Stade Municipal de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

ASOS38%
×Draw30%
Dynamo Unacob32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASOS
1.13
Dynamo Unacob
1.01

ASOS creates 12% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 87 away

creates per match

ASOS
0.74
Dynamo Unacob
0.82

allows per match

ASOS
1.21
Dynamo Unacob
1.52

finishing

ASOS+0.00on par
Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASOS ↓

Dynamo Unacob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ASOS or draw
68%
ASOS or Dynamo Unacob
70%
Draw or Dynamo Unacob
62%

Winning margin

ASOS wins by 2+
16%
Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ASOS 1+ goals
68%
ASOS 2+ goals
31%
ASOS 3+ goals
11%
Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
64%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
27%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ASOS (draw refunded)
54%
Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASOS at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASOS attack 0.74 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + ASOS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ASOS scores more
38%
level
30%
Dynamo Unacob scores more
32%

ASOS at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ASOS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: ASOS 0–0 Dynamo Unacob

ASOS and Dynamo Unacob drew 0-0 in Championnat National on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Missérété in Akpo-Missérété.