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ASOS vs Béké Bembèrèkè — Championnat National 2019

ASOS
ASOS
FT
1 – 0
Béké Bembèrèkè
Béké Bembèrèkè
12/15/2018Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 7Centre d’excellence de football de Missérété (Akpro-Missérété)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

ASOS32%
×Draw31%
Béké Bembèrèkè37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASOS
0.95
Béké Bembèrèkè
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 99 away

creates per match

ASOS
0.75
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.91

allows per match

ASOS
1.18
Béké Bembèrèkè
1.15

finishing

ASOS+0.00on par
Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASOS ↓

Béké Bembèrèkè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ASOS or draw
63%
ASOS or Béké Bembèrèkè
69%
Draw or Béké Bembèrèkè
68%

Winning margin

ASOS wins by 2+
12%
Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ASOS 1+ goals
61%
ASOS 2+ goals
25%
ASOS 3+ goals
7%
Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals
65%
Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals
28%
Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ASOS (draw refunded)
47%
Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASOS at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Béké Bembèrèkè away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASOS attack 0.75 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.95

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 0.91 + ASOS defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

ASOS scores more
32%
level
31%
Béké Bembèrèkè scores more
37%

Béké Bembèrèkè at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Béké Bembèrèkè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: ASOS 1–0 Béké Bembèrèkè

ASOS beat Béké Bembèrèkè 1-0 in Championnat National on December 15, 2018.

The match was played at Centre d’excellence de football de Missérété (Akpro-Missérété).