ASOS 1–1 AS Cotonou: Result & Stats

ASOS

FT

1 – 1

AS Cotonou

6/12/2021

Championnat National · Championship Round - 14Centre d’excellence de football de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

ASOS29%

×Draw32%

AS Cotonou39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASOSExpected goals in this matchAS Cotonou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.03

ASOS

0.85

AS Cotonou

1.03

AS Cotonou creates 21% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 113 away

0.75

creates per match

0.88

1.18

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

ASOS

0.75

AS Cotonou

0.88

allows per match

ASOS

1.18

AS Cotonou

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASOS+0.00on par

AS Cotonou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASOS ↓

AS Cotonou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ASOS or draw

61%

ASOS or AS Cotonou

68%

Draw or AS Cotonou

71%

Winning margin

ASOS wins by 2+

10%

AS Cotonou wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ASOS 1+ goals

57%

ASOS 2+ goals

21%

ASOS 3+ goals

5%

AS Cotonou 1+ goals

64%

AS Cotonou 2+ goals

28%

AS Cotonou 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ASOS (draw refunded)

43%

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASOS at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

AS Cotonou away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASOS attack 0.75 + AS Cotonou defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

AS Cotonou attack 0.88 + ASOS defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ASOS scores more

29%

level

32%

AS Cotonou scores more

39%

AS Cotonou at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Cotonou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff