ASOM 1–0 Stade Malien Bamako: Result & Stats

ASOM

FT

1 – 0

Stade Malien Bamako

4/28/2022

Première Division · Round 21Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

ASOM19%

×Draw27%

Stade Malien Bamako54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASOMExpected goals in this matchStade Malien Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

1.41

ASOM

0.71

Stade Malien Bamako

1.41

Stade Malien Bamako creates 99% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 98 away

0.83

creates per match

1.39

1.43

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

ASOM

0.83

Stade Malien Bamako

1.39

allows per match

ASOM

1.43

Stade Malien Bamako

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASOM+0.00on par

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASOM ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–117%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

ASOM or draw

46%

ASOM or Stade Malien Bamako

73%

Draw or Stade Malien Bamako

81%

Winning margin

ASOM wins by 2+

5%

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

ASOM 1+ goals

51%

ASOM 2+ goals

16%

ASOM 3+ goals

4%

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals

76%

Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals

41%

Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

ASOM (draw refunded)

26%

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASOM at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.43 · 42 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASOM attack 0.83 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.71

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.39 + ASOM defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ASOM scores more

19%

level

27%

Stade Malien Bamako scores more

54%

Stade Malien Bamako at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff