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ASO Chlef vs USM Bel Abbes — Ligue 1 2018

ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
10/5/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Mohamed Boumezrag (Chlef)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

ASO Chlef55%
×Draw27%
USM Bel Abbes18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASO Chlef
1.44
USM Bel Abbes
0.69

ASO Chlef creates 109% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 46 away

creates per match

ASO Chlef
1.15
USM Bel Abbes
0.61

allows per match

ASO Chlef
0.77
USM Bel Abbes
1.74

finishing

ASO Chlef+0.00on par
USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASO Chlef ↓

USM Bel Abbes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ASO Chlef or draw
82%
ASO Chlef or USM Bel Abbes
73%
Draw or USM Bel Abbes
45%

Winning margin

ASO Chlef wins by 2+
28%
USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ASO Chlef 1+ goals
76%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
42%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
18%
USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
50%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
15%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
75%
USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASO Chlef at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.77 · 107 matches

USM Bel Abbes away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASO Chlef attack 1.15 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

USM Bel Abbes attack 0.61 + ASO Chlef defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ASO Chlef scores more
55%
level
27%
USM Bel Abbes scores more
18%

ASO Chlef at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ASO Chlef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASO Chlef vs USM Bel Abbes

USM Bel Abbes beat ASO Chlef 1-0 in Ligue 1 on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed Boumezrag (Chlef).