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ASO Chlef vs RC Arba — Ligue 1 2018

ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RC Arba
RC Arba
10/21/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade Tahar Zoughari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

ASO Chlef50%
×Draw28%
RC Arba22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASO Chlef
1.36
RC Arba
0.79

ASO Chlef creates 72% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 33 away

creates per match

ASO Chlef
1.15
RC Arba
0.82

allows per match

ASO Chlef
0.77
RC Arba
1.58

finishing

ASO Chlef+0.00on par
RC Arba+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASO Chlef ↓

RC Arba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ASO Chlef or draw
78%
ASO Chlef or RC Arba
72%
Draw or RC Arba
50%

Winning margin

ASO Chlef wins by 2+
24%
RC Arba wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ASO Chlef 1+ goals
74%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
39%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
16%
RC Arba 1+ goals
55%
RC Arba 2+ goals
19%
RC Arba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
70%
RC Arba (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASO Chlef at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.77 · 107 matches

RC Arba away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASO Chlef attack 1.15 + RC Arba defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.36

RC Arba attack 0.82 + ASO Chlef defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ASO Chlef scores more
50%
level
28%
RC Arba scores more
22%

ASO Chlef at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ASO Chlef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASO Chlef vs RC Arba

ASO Chlef and RC Arba drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on October 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Tahar Zoughari in Relizane.