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ASO Chlef vs Paradou AC — Ligue 1 2018

ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paradou AC
Paradou AC
12/15/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Mohamed Boumezrag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

ASO Chlef43%
×Draw29%
Paradou AC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASO Chlef
1.23
Paradou AC
0.93

ASO Chlef creates 32% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 121 away

creates per match

ASO Chlef
1.15
Paradou AC
1.08

allows per match

ASO Chlef
0.77
Paradou AC
1.32

finishing

ASO Chlef+0.00on par
Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASO Chlef ↓

Paradou AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ASO Chlef or draw
72%
ASO Chlef or Paradou AC
71%
Draw or Paradou AC
57%

Winning margin

ASO Chlef wins by 2+
19%
Paradou AC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ASO Chlef 1+ goals
71%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
35%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
13%
Paradou AC 1+ goals
61%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
24%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
61%
Paradou AC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASO Chlef at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.77 · 107 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASO Chlef attack 1.15 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Paradou AC attack 1.08 + ASO Chlef defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ASO Chlef scores more
43%
level
29%
Paradou AC scores more
28%

ASO Chlef at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ASO Chlef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: ASO Chlef 1–1 Paradou AC

ASO Chlef and Paradou AC drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed Boumezrag in Chlef.