ASO Chlef 0–1 ES Setif: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

ASO Chlef

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ES Setif

4/11/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Mohamed Boumezrag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

ASO Chlef45%

×Draw30%

ES Setif25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASO ChlefExpected goals in this matchES Setif

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.83

ASO Chlef

1.21

ES Setif

0.83

ASO Chlef creates 46% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 122 away

1.15

creates per match

0.89

0.77

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

ASO Chlef

1.15

ES Setif

0.89

allows per match

ASO Chlef

0.77

ES Setif

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASO Chlef+0.00on par

ES Setif+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASO Chlef ↓

ES Setif →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

ASO Chlef or draw

75%

ASO Chlef or ES Setif

70%

Draw or ES Setif

55%

Winning margin

ASO Chlef wins by 2+

20%

ES Setif wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ASO Chlef 1+ goals

70%

ASO Chlef 2+ goals

34%

ASO Chlef 3+ goals

12%

ES Setif 1+ goals

56%

ES Setif 2+ goals

20%

ES Setif 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

ASO Chlef (draw refunded)

64%

ES Setif (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASO Chlef at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.77 · 107 matches

ES Setif away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASO Chlef attack 1.15 + ES Setif defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

ES Setif attack 0.89 + ASO Chlef defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ASO Chlef scores more

45%

level

30%

ES Setif scores more

25%

ASO Chlef at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ASO Chlef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff