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ASO Chlef vs El Bayadh — Ligue 1 2018

ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Bayadh
El Bayadh
11/8/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade Mohamed Boumezrag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

ASO Chlef49%
×Draw30%
El Bayadh21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASO Chlef
1.23
El Bayadh
0.71

ASO Chlef creates 73% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 60 away

creates per match

ASO Chlef
1.15
El Bayadh
0.65

allows per match

ASO Chlef
0.77
El Bayadh
1.30

finishing

ASO Chlef+0.00on par
El Bayadh+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASO Chlef ↓

El Bayadh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ASO Chlef or draw
79%
ASO Chlef or El Bayadh
70%
Draw or El Bayadh
51%

Winning margin

ASO Chlef wins by 2+
22%
El Bayadh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ASO Chlef 1+ goals
71%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
35%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
13%
El Bayadh 1+ goals
51%
El Bayadh 2+ goals
16%
El Bayadh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
69%
El Bayadh (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASO Chlef at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.77 · 107 matches

El Bayadh away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASO Chlef attack 1.15 + El Bayadh defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

El Bayadh attack 0.65 + ASO Chlef defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ASO Chlef scores more
49%
level
30%
El Bayadh scores more
21%

ASO Chlef at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ASO Chlef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: ASO Chlef 2–0 El Bayadh

ASO Chlef beat El Bayadh 2-0 in Ligue 1 on November 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed Boumezrag in Chlef.