ASO Chlef vs Bordj BOU Arreridj — Ligue 1 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 45+ matches
ASO Chlef55%
Bordj BOU Arreridj17%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
ASO Chlef creates 114% more chances
Season form · 107 home / 45 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No64
- Yes36
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
ASO Chlef ↓
Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
ASO Chlef at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.77 · 107 matches
Bordj BOU Arreridj away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
ASO Chlef attack 1.15 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39
Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 0.53 + ASO Chlef defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.65
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
ASO Chlef at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "ASO Chlef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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JS Saoura
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MC Alger
CS Constantine
CR BelouizdadBordj BOU Arreridj
MC Oran
Hussein Dey
AS AIN Mlila
USM Bel Abbes
MO Bejaia
Olympique Medea
TadjenantIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
ASO Chlef host Bordj BOU Arreridj on Saturday, 21 December 2019 at 16:00. The match is part of the Ligue 1 2018/2019 season.
Ligue 1: ASO Chlef 0–0 Bordj BOU Arreridj
ASO Chlef and Bordj BOU Arreridj drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on December 21, 2019.
The match was played at Stade Mohamed Boumezrag (Chlef).