ASO Chlef 2–3 AS AIN Mlila: Result & Stats

ASO Chlef

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

AS AIN Mlila

T. Lakour 89', 82'

M. Hamia 76'

B. Elmammeri 32'

H. Demane 28'

3/6/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade Mohamed Boumezrag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

ASO Chlef54%

×Draw26%

AS AIN Mlila20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASO ChlefExpected goals in this matchAS AIN Mlila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.78

ASO Chlef

1.48

AS AIN Mlila

0.78

ASO Chlef creates 90% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 45 away

1.15

creates per match

0.78

0.77

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

ASO Chlef

1.15

AS AIN Mlila

0.78

allows per match

ASO Chlef

0.77

AS AIN Mlila

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASO Chlef+0.00on par

AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASO Chlef ↓

AS AIN Mlila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

ASO Chlef or draw

80%

ASO Chlef or AS AIN Mlila

74%

Draw or AS AIN Mlila

46%

Winning margin

ASO Chlef wins by 2+

28%

AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

ASO Chlef 1+ goals

77%

ASO Chlef 2+ goals

43%

ASO Chlef 3+ goals

19%

AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals

54%

AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals

18%

AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

ASO Chlef (draw refunded)

73%

AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASO Chlef at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.77 · 107 matches

AS AIN Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASO Chlef attack 1.15 + AS AIN Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

AS AIN Mlila attack 0.78 + ASO Chlef defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ASO Chlef scores more

54%

level

26%

AS AIN Mlila scores more

20%

ASO Chlef at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ASO Chlef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

H. Demane

32'

B. Elmammeri

46'

M. Alili← I. Chahrour

46'

T. Lakour← K. Beldjilali

76'

M. Hamia

77'

B. Ouali← M. Hamia

77'

M. Tiaïba← B. Elmammeri

82'

T. Lakour

85'

A. Soltane← H. Demane

89'

Y. Guermache← M. Tiaïba

89'

T. Lakour

90'

M. Zalegh← C. Debbih

ASO

AS

▼

⚽

▼

Demane

⚽

▼

Hamia

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Zaoui

46'▲M. Alili←▼I. Chahrour

46'▲T. Lakour←▼K. Beldjilali

ASO Chlef substitutes

AliliLakour

Manager: R. Iaïche

77'▲B. Ouali←▼M. Hamia

77'▲M. Tiaïba←▼B. Elmammeri

85'▲A. Soltane←▼H. Demane

89'▲Y. Guermache←▼M. Tiaïba

90'▲M. Zalegh←▼C. Debbih

AS AIN Mlila substitutes

OualiTiaïbaSoltaneGuermacheZalegh

Match Recap: ASO Chlef vs AS AIN Mlila

AS AIN Mlila beat ASO Chlef 3-2 in Ligue 1 on March 6, 2021.

Goals: H. Demane (28'), B. Elmammeri (32'), M. Hamia (76'), T. Lakour (82', 89').

The match was played at Stade Mohamed Boumezrag in Chlef.

ASO Chlef vs AS AIN Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: ASO Chlef vs AS AIN Mlila