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AskU vs ToBK — Suomen Cup 2018

AskU
AskU
FT
1 – 2
ToBK
ToBK
4/3/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundSöderkullan tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AskU6%
×Draw10%
ToBK84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AskU
0.79
ToBK
3.29

ToBK creates 316% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

AskU
1.25
ToBK
3.33

allows per match

AskU
3.25
ToBK
0.33

finishing

AskU+0.00on par
ToBK+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AskU ↓

ToBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–210%
0–311%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

AskU or draw
16%
AskU or ToBK
90%
Draw or ToBK
94%

Winning margin

AskU wins by 2+
2%
ToBK wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

AskU 1+ goals
55%
AskU 2+ goals
19%
AskU 3+ goals
5%
ToBK 1+ goals
96%
ToBK 2+ goals
83%
ToBK 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

AskU (draw refunded)
6%
ToBK (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AskU at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

ToBK away — creates 3.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AskU attack 1.25 + ToBK defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

ToBK attack 3.33 + AskU defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

AskU scores more
6%
level
10%
ToBK scores more
84%

ToBK at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "ToBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AskU 1 – 2 ToBK

ToBK beat AskU 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 3, 2023.

The match was played at Söderkullan tekonurmi in Sipoo.