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Åskollen vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Åskollen
Åskollen
FT
4 – 2
Start II
Start II
6/5/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 8Glassverket Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åskollen58%
×Draw18%
Start II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åskollen
2.85
Start II
1.84

Åskollen creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Åskollen
2.85
Start II
1.38

allows per match

Åskollen
2.31
Start II
2.85

finishing

Åskollen+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åskollen ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Åskollen or draw
76%
Åskollen or Start II
82%
Draw or Start II
42%

Winning margin

Åskollen wins by 2+
39%
Start II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Åskollen 1+ goals
94%
Åskollen 2+ goals
77%
Åskollen 3+ goals
53%
Start II 1+ goals
84%
Start II 2+ goals
55%
Start II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Åskollen (draw refunded)
71%
Start II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åskollen at home — creates 2.85, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Start II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åskollen attack 2.85 + Start II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.85

Start II attack 1.38 + Åskollen defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Åskollen scores more
58%
level
18%
Start II scores more
24%

Åskollen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Åskollen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Åskollen 4–2 Start II

Åskollen beat Start II 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on June 5, 2023.

The match was played at Glassverket Kunstgress in Drammen.