Åskollen 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 II: Result & Stats

Åskollen

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Sarpsborg 08 II

4/14/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 2Glassverket Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åskollen32%

×Draw19%

Sarpsborg 08 II49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÅskollenExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

2.69

Åskollen

2.16

Sarpsborg 08 II

2.69

Sarpsborg 08 II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.62

creates per match

1.92

3.46

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Åskollen

1.62

Sarpsborg 08 II

1.92

allows per match

Åskollen

3.46

Sarpsborg 08 II

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Åskollen+0.00on par

Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åskollen ↓

Sarpsborg 08 II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Åskollen or draw

51%

Åskollen or Sarpsborg 08 II

81%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 II

68%

Winning margin

Åskollen wins by 2+

17%

Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Åskollen 1+ goals

88%

Åskollen 2+ goals

63%

Åskollen 3+ goals

36%

Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals

93%

Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals

74%

Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Åskollen (draw refunded)

39%

Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åskollen at home — creates 1.62, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

Sarpsborg 08 II away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åskollen attack 1.62 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.16

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 1.92 + Åskollen defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Åskollen scores more

32%

level

19%

Sarpsborg 08 II scores more

49%

Sarpsborg 08 II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff