Åskollen 2–1 Mandalskameratene: Result & Stats

Åskollen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Mandalskameratene

8/19/2023

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 16Glassverket Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åskollen45%

×Draw19%

Mandalskameratene36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÅskollenExpected goals in this matchMandalskameratene

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

2.20

Åskollen

2.47

Mandalskameratene

2.20

Åskollen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

2.85

creates per match

2.09

2.31

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Åskollen

2.85

Mandalskameratene

2.09

allows per match

Åskollen

2.31

Mandalskameratene

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Åskollen+0.00on par

Mandalskameratene+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åskollen ↓

Mandalskameratene →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Åskollen or draw

64%

Åskollen or Mandalskameratene

81%

Draw or Mandalskameratene

55%

Winning margin

Åskollen wins by 2+

27%

Mandalskameratene wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Åskollen 1+ goals

91%

Åskollen 2+ goals

70%

Åskollen 3+ goals

44%

Mandalskameratene 1+ goals

89%

Mandalskameratene 2+ goals

64%

Mandalskameratene 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Åskollen (draw refunded)

56%

Mandalskameratene (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åskollen at home — creates 2.85, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Mandalskameratene away — creates 2.09, concedes 2.09 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åskollen attack 2.85 + Mandalskameratene defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.47

Mandalskameratene attack 2.09 + Åskollen defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Åskollen scores more

45%

level

19%

Mandalskameratene scores more

36%

Åskollen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Åskollen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Åskollen vs Mandalskameratene

Åskollen beat Mandalskameratene 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Glassverket Kunstgress in Drammen.

Åskollen vs Mandalskameratene — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Åskollen vs Mandalskameratene