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Åskollen vs KFUM II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Åskollen
Åskollen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
KFUM II
KFUM II
L. A. Bjornerud 87'
N. Njie 25'
M. Gavey 37'
9/24/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 22Glassverket Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åskollen30%
×Draw19%
KFUM II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åskollen
2.04
KFUM II
2.66

KFUM II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Åskollen
1.62
KFUM II
1.85

allows per match

Åskollen
3.46
KFUM II
2.46

finishing

Åskollen+0.00on par
KFUM II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åskollen ↓

KFUM II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Åskollen or draw
49%
Åskollen or KFUM II
81%
Draw or KFUM II
70%

Winning margin

Åskollen wins by 2+
16%
KFUM II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Åskollen 1+ goals
87%
Åskollen 2+ goals
60%
Åskollen 3+ goals
33%
KFUM II 1+ goals
93%
KFUM II 2+ goals
74%
KFUM II 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Åskollen (draw refunded)
37%
KFUM II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åskollen at home — creates 1.62, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

KFUM II away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åskollen attack 1.62 + KFUM II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.04

KFUM II attack 1.85 + Åskollen defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Åskollen scores more
30%
level
19%
KFUM II scores more
51%

KFUM II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "KFUM II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
N. Njie
37'
M. Gavey
87'
L. A. Bjornerud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Åskollen 2–1 KFUM II

Åskollen beat KFUM II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 24, 2024.

Goals: N. Njie (25'), M. Gavey (37'), L. A. Bjornerud (87').

The match was played at Glassverket Kunstgress in Drammen.