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Åskollen vs Frigg — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Åskollen
Åskollen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Frigg
Frigg
6/29/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 13Glassverket Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åskollen19%
×Draw16%
Frigg65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åskollen
1.74
Frigg
3.23

Frigg creates 86% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Åskollen
1.62
Frigg
3.00

allows per match

Åskollen
3.46
Frigg
1.85

finishing

Åskollen+0.00on par
Frigg+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åskollen ↓

Frigg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Åskollen or draw
35%
Åskollen or Frigg
84%
Draw or Frigg
81%

Winning margin

Åskollen wins by 2+
8%
Frigg wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Åskollen 1+ goals
82%
Åskollen 2+ goals
52%
Åskollen 3+ goals
25%
Frigg 1+ goals
96%
Frigg 2+ goals
82%
Frigg 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Åskollen (draw refunded)
22%
Frigg (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åskollen at home — creates 1.62, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

Frigg away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åskollen attack 1.62 + Frigg defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.74

Frigg attack 3.00 + Åskollen defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 3.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Åskollen scores more
19%
level
16%
Frigg scores more
65%

Frigg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Åskollen 2–2 Frigg

Åskollen and Frigg drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Glassverket Kunstgress in Drammen.