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Åskollen vs Fredrikstad II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Åskollen
Åskollen
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
9/4/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 18Glassverket Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åskollen47%
×Draw19%
Fredrikstad II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åskollen
2.60
Fredrikstad II
2.21

Åskollen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Åskollen
2.85
Fredrikstad II
2.12

allows per match

Åskollen
2.31
Fredrikstad II
2.35

finishing

Åskollen+0.00on par
Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åskollen ↓

Fredrikstad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Åskollen or draw
66%
Åskollen or Fredrikstad II
81%
Draw or Fredrikstad II
53%

Winning margin

Åskollen wins by 2+
29%
Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Åskollen 1+ goals
92%
Åskollen 2+ goals
73%
Åskollen 3+ goals
47%
Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
89%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
65%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Åskollen (draw refunded)
58%
Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åskollen at home — creates 2.85, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åskollen attack 2.85 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.60

Fredrikstad II attack 2.12 + Åskollen defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Åskollen scores more
47%
level
19%
Fredrikstad II scores more
34%

Åskollen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Åskollen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Åskollen 1–4 Fredrikstad II

Fredrikstad II beat Åskollen 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 4, 2023.

The match was played at Glassverket Kunstgress in Drammen.