Åskollen 0–4 Bærum: Result & Stats

Åskollen

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Bærum

10/5/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 24Glassverket Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åskollen19%

×Draw17%

Bærum64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÅskollenExpected goals in this matchBærum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.84

Åskollen

1.50

Bærum

2.84

Bærum creates 89% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.62

creates per match

2.23

3.46

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Åskollen

1.62

Bærum

2.23

allows per match

Åskollen

3.46

Bærum

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Åskollen+0.00on par

Bærum+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åskollen ↓

Bærum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Åskollen or draw

36%

Åskollen or Bærum

83%

Draw or Bærum

81%

Winning margin

Åskollen wins by 2+

8%

Bærum wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Åskollen 1+ goals

78%

Åskollen 2+ goals

44%

Åskollen 3+ goals

19%

Bærum 1+ goals

94%

Bærum 2+ goals

77%

Bærum 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Åskollen (draw refunded)

22%

Bærum (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åskollen at home — creates 1.62, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

Bærum away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åskollen attack 1.62 + Bærum defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bærum attack 2.23 + Åskollen defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 2.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Åskollen scores more

19%

level

17%

Bærum scores more

64%

Bærum at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bærum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff