ASKO Kara 2–1 LPRC Oilers: Result & Stats

ASKO Kara

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

LPRC Oilers

9/19/2021

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundStade de Kégué

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ASKO Kara61%

×Draw24%

LPRC Oilers15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASKO KaraExpected goals in this matchLPRC Oilers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.67

ASKO Kara

1.67

LPRC Oilers

0.67

ASKO Kara creates 149% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

ASKO Kara

1.00

LPRC Oilers

0.33

allows per match

ASKO Kara

1.00

LPRC Oilers

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASKO Kara+0.00on par

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASKO Kara ↓

LPRC Oilers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

ASKO Kara or draw

85%

ASKO Kara or LPRC Oilers

76%

Draw or LPRC Oilers

39%

Winning margin

ASKO Kara wins by 2+

34%

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

ASKO Kara 1+ goals

81%

ASKO Kara 2+ goals

50%

ASKO Kara 3+ goals

23%

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals

49%

LPRC Oilers 2+ goals

15%

LPRC Oilers 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

ASKO Kara (draw refunded)

81%

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASKO Kara at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASKO Kara attack 1.00 + LPRC Oilers defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

LPRC Oilers attack 0.33 + ASKO Kara defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

ASKO Kara scores more

61%

level

24%

LPRC Oilers scores more

15%

ASKO Kara at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "ASKO Kara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff