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Asker vs Senja — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Asker
Asker
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Senja
Senja
7/4/20212. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Føyka Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Asker73%
×Draw15%
Senja12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asker
2.82
Senja
1.09

Asker creates 159% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

Asker
2.54
Senja
0.57

allows per match

Asker
1.62
Senja
3.10

finishing

Asker+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asker ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Asker or draw
88%
Asker or Senja
85%
Draw or Senja
27%

Winning margin

Asker wins by 2+
52%
Senja wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Asker 1+ goals
94%
Asker 2+ goals
77%
Asker 3+ goals
52%
Senja 1+ goals
66%
Senja 2+ goals
30%
Senja 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Asker (draw refunded)
86%
Senja (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asker at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Senja away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asker attack 2.54 + Senja defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.82

Senja attack 0.57 + Asker defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Asker scores more
73%
level
15%
Senja scores more
12%

Asker at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Asker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asker 4 – 1 Senja

Asker beat Senja 4-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at Føyka Kunstgress in Asker.