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Asker vs Mjøndalen II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Asker
Asker
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
9/29/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 23Føyka Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Asker78%
×Draw12%
Mjøndalen II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asker
3.42
Mjøndalen II
1.20

Asker creates 185% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Asker
3.31
Mjøndalen II
0.85

allows per match

Asker
1.54
Mjøndalen II
3.54

finishing

Asker+0.00on par
Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asker ↓

Mjøndalen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Asker or draw
90%
Asker or Mjøndalen II
88%
Draw or Mjøndalen II
22%

Winning margin

Asker wins by 2+
60%
Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Asker 1+ goals
97%
Asker 2+ goals
85%
Asker 3+ goals
64%
Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
70%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
34%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Asker (draw refunded)
89%
Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asker at home — creates 3.31, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asker attack 3.31 + Mjøndalen II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.42

Mjøndalen II attack 0.85 + Asker defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Asker scores more
78%
level
12%
Mjøndalen II scores more
10%

Asker at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Asker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asker vs Mjøndalen II

Asker beat Mjøndalen II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Føyka Kunstgress in Asker.