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Asker vs Mjølner — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Asker
Asker
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mjølner
Mjølner
9/3/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 18Føyka Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Asker63%
×Draw18%
Mjølner19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asker
2.58
Mjølner
1.36

Asker creates 90% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

Asker
3.00
Mjølner
1.57

allows per match

Asker
1.15
Mjølner
2.17

finishing

Asker+0.00on par
Mjølner+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asker ↓

Mjølner →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Asker or draw
81%
Asker or Mjølner
82%
Draw or Mjølner
37%

Winning margin

Asker wins by 2+
42%
Mjølner wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Asker 1+ goals
92%
Asker 2+ goals
72%
Asker 3+ goals
47%
Mjølner 1+ goals
74%
Mjølner 2+ goals
39%
Mjølner 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Asker (draw refunded)
77%
Mjølner (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asker at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Mjølner away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asker attack 3.00 + Mjølner defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.58

Mjølner attack 1.57 + Asker defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Asker scores more
63%
level
18%
Mjølner scores more
19%

Asker at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Asker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asker vs Mjølner

Mjølner beat Asker 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Føyka Kunstgress in Asker.