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Asker vs Flint — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Asker
Asker
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Flint
Flint
6/22/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 12Føyka Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Asker63%
×Draw18%
Flint19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asker
2.66
Flint
1.43

Asker creates 86% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Asker
3.31
Flint
1.31

allows per match

Asker
1.54
Flint
2.00

finishing

Asker+0.00on par
Flint+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asker ↓

Flint →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Asker or draw
81%
Asker or Flint
82%
Draw or Flint
37%

Winning margin

Asker wins by 2+
42%
Flint wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Asker 1+ goals
93%
Asker 2+ goals
74%
Asker 3+ goals
49%
Flint 1+ goals
76%
Flint 2+ goals
42%
Flint 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Asker (draw refunded)
77%
Flint (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asker at home — creates 3.31, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Flint away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asker attack 3.31 + Flint defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.66

Flint attack 1.31 + Asker defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Asker scores more
63%
level
18%
Flint scores more
19%

Asker at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Asker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asker vs Flint

Asker beat Flint 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Føyka Kunstgress in Asker.