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Askøy vs Frøya — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Askøy
Askøy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Frøya
Frøya
5/11/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 6Follese Tertnes Holding Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Askøy64%
×Draw17%
Frøya18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Askøy
2.75
Frøya
1.44

Askøy creates 91% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Askøy
2.85
Frøya
1.65

allows per match

Askøy
1.23
Frøya
2.65

finishing

Askøy+0.00on par
Frøya+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Askøy ↓

Frøya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Askøy or draw
82%
Askøy or Frøya
83%
Draw or Frøya
36%

Winning margin

Askøy wins by 2+
44%
Frøya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Askøy 1+ goals
93%
Askøy 2+ goals
75%
Askøy 3+ goals
51%
Frøya 1+ goals
76%
Frøya 2+ goals
42%
Frøya 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Askøy (draw refunded)
78%
Frøya (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Askøy at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Frøya away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Askøy attack 2.85 + Frøya defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.75

Frøya attack 1.65 + Askøy defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Askøy scores more
64%
level
17%
Frøya scores more
18%

Askøy at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Askøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Askøy 2–1 Frøya

Askøy beat Frøya 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Follese Tertnes Holding Arena in Strusshamn.